Challenge 9.1

Why does this Challenge need to be solved?

There are several core drivers for the solution to this challenge:

• Scottish Forestry are legally required to survey for pests and disease in the forests of Scotland every year

• Due to climate factors, there are increasing threats from pests and diseases making the problem harder to manage

• Earlier detection leads to better outcomes for forests and at less cost

• Our current approach is to fly helicopters to manually survey. This is expensive, carbon-intensive, time consuming and provides limited coverage

• We need to cover a larger extent of Scotland depending on the trees affected by each disease

• Repeatable analysis will enable us to monitor change over time

• Detecting new tree health problems early could allow us to eradicate or control infection or infestation before large numbers of trees die or are prematurely felled, reducing biodiversity, carbon and economic losses

• Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh are interested to understand if early identification of pests and disease would be applicable to wild plants which are also facing increased threats.

How will we know the Challenge has been solved?

There are 6 key indicators that the challenge has been successfully met:

1. Tree health officers are able to spend more of their time on detailed surveillance rather than general surveillance

2. We can detect tree pests and diseases earlier

3. We can survey a larger area than our current means

4. We are better able to model the spread of disease which allows us to be more proactive in controlling it

5. We will have reduced or removed our reliance on high-carbon producing helicopter flights

6. We are able to quickly report on new outbreaks or interceptions accurately (national contingency planning)

Who are the end users likely to be?

There are a myriad of potential end users for this solutions:

Principle End Users:

• Scottish Forestry Tree Health Team (Policy and Practice)

• Tree Health Officers

• Scottish Forestry Conservancy Offices

• Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh

Stakeholders:

• Nature Scot

• Forest Research

• Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)

• Forestry and Land Scotland (FLS)

• Forest Agents

• Forest owners

  • Private

  • Investors

  • NGOs (National Park Authorities, Local Authorities, Transport Scotland, Network Rail)

  • Third sector organisations

• Forestry Commission England

Interested Third Parties:

• Natural Resources Wales  Confederation of Forest Industries (Confor)

• Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS)

• Rural Payments and Inspections Division (RPID)

• Agricultural Sector

• Welsh government (plant health policy and Chief plant health officer for Wales)

• DAERA (Dept of Agriculture, Environment & Rural Affairs – NI Government)

• DEFRA (as the NPPO for UK)

Has the Challenge Sponsor attempted to solve this problem before?

Scottish Forestry’s existing solution is to conduct aerial surveys from helicopters using trained officers to spot areas of interest and capture photographic data for desk-based analysis. This is expensive, time consuming, difficult to replicate, and is limited by flight time, visibility, seasonal changes, manual identification and limited coverage.

We have not managed to find a suitable alternative replacement, however, several approaches show promise, including:

• Large scale image analysis could be used to detect changes in the colour of the leaves or the amount of light reflecting from the forest to indicate the presence of disease. Limitations:  data availability, data quality and resolution.

• Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), could eliminate the costs associated with pilots, fuel, and maintenance to fly forests. Coverage and resolution are currently unknown, large datasets would need to be processed. Limitations: coverage, access restrictions, image analysis.

• Remote sensing technologies are advancing quickly

  • Satellite imagery at different resolutions may be able to detect some early signs of tree diseases, such as discoloration, early leaf loss, and other symptoms. All are limited by data availability, quality and resolution.

  • Multispectral/Hyperspectral imaging has been used to detect the early signs of disease in other uses cases such as wheat, rice and olives. These approaches have yet to demonstrate an ability to discern early signs from more complex images such as mixed-species forests planted in irregular patterns

  • LiDAR can map a landscape and tree coverage, seeing through the canopy to detect changes and count and measure trees (e.g. height/volume). Uncertain as to whether this could help with identification of stress and disease. Limitations: disease detection, regularity, repeatability.

  • Indices such as NDVI, NDWI and SAVI can be used to detect changes in tree physiology relating to stress before leaf or crown symptoms are visible. Limitations: lack of specificity for distinct species and types of stress

• Artificial intelligence (AI) models could aid in the identification of unusual patterns in the data and flag any areas that may require further investigation. Limitations: data availability, data quality, resolution.

• Citizen Science approaches to record, analyse and map individual instances of disease, such as Tree Alert and ObserveATree. Limitations: Volunteers are only likely to identify small numbers of pests and diseases, coverage is patchy and ad hoc, bias towards novel findings (e.g. new threats or first detection in a geographical area)

Are there any interdependencies or blockers?

Depending on the potential solutions — they would need to be compatible with Scottish Government and Scottish Forestry existing IT infrastructure, i.e. our Geo Information Services (ESRI stack) and other software.

Will a solution need to integrate with any existing systems / equipment?

Depending on the potential solution/s they may need to integrate with our ESRI GIS technology. 

As long as data are provided in a standard, compatible format there should be minimal costs for integration. There might be some cost if the challenge provides data/service and we want to develop our own application around that data. If the solution results in an application we might need to consider how that integrates into the Tree Health workflow and systems.

Is this part of an existing service?

The challenge is related to our Tree Health Service. As part of our effort to manage tree health to help safeguard the resilience of forestry we are required to conduct aerial surveillance of Scotland's woodlands to spot early signs of tree health issues.

We also help to inform importers and exporters of the relevant regulations and restrictions and issue Statutory Plant Health Notices requiring that woodland owners act to contain or slow down outbreaks.

Any technologies or features the Challenge Sponsor wishes to explore or avoid?

Scottish Forestry are open to all technologies or approaches.

We have explored the following options which show promise:

• Large scale image analysis

• Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs)

• Satellite imagery

• Multispectral/Hyperspectral imaging

• LiDAR

• Indices such as NDVI, NDWI and SAVI

• Artificial intelligence (AI)

• Citizen Science

What is the commercial opportunity beyond a CivTech contract?

Identifying tree stress, pests and disease early and at scale would have UK-wide and worldwide applications and commercial viability.  Conducting pest and disease surveys is a very important part of enabling global trade in goods not just within the UK but across the globe. Being able to use data to model the spread of pests and disease would allow for better understanding and potentially predictive capabilities.

Application of this technology into wild plants would allow organisations such as Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh to better protect wild plants and achieve biodiversity outcomes.

• Up to 40% of global crop production is lost to plant pests and diseases, says the U.N (United Nations). Food and Agriculture Organization.

• Each year, plant diseases cost the global economy more than $220 billion, and invasive insects cost at least $70 billion.

• Erratic weather linked to global warming is creating ideal conditions for the insects, according to climate scientists.

• Forest industry will be interested in detecting outbreaks early to plan interventions more strategically, reduce timber losses, demonstrate UKFS compliance

• An approach using imagery to target ground surveys might be of interest to other statutory regulators for agriculture and biodiversity for example

• To provide future assurance to carbon markets

Who are the stakeholders?

• Scottish Forestry

• Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh

• NatureScot

Who’s in the Challenge Sponsor team?

• Dr Flora Donald – Tree Health Policy Officer

• James Nott – Head of Tree Health

• Kyle Usher – Head of Innovation

• Mike Kerr – Head of GIS

Supported by partner organisations, CENSIS and RBGE:

• Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh - Dr Matt Elliot - Plant Health & Biosecurity Scientist

• CENSIS - Rachael Wakefield - Business Development Manager

• CENSIS - Cade Wells - Business Development Director  

What is the policy background to the Challenge?

Key aims of Scotland’s Forestry Strategy 2019-2029 are to improve the contribution of forests and woodlands to a healthy and high quality environment and sustainable economic growth. Evidence shows that the pace and scale of tree pest and disease incursions to Scotland are escalating and will be accelerated by further trade globalisation and climate change. Tree pest and disease outbreaks can cause widespread tree mortality and loss of timber revenues but also impact our ability to mitigate against climate change, improve habitat quality and reduce species losses, meet demand for sustainable construction and energy sources, and diminish access to forests and woodlands for health and well-being. We have both national and international

legal responsibilities to prevent the introduction and spread of harmful species in Scotland. The Strategy further commits us to improving our understanding of pest and disease threats using research, surveillance and the development of new technologies to manage for, and mitigate against, them.

Other relevant policies are the Biodiversity strategy to 2045 (www.gov.scot),The UK Forestry Standard (www.gov.uk) and the England Trees Action Plan 2021 to 2024 (www.gov.uk).